Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington will experience its peak daily temperature at the Wellington International Airport Station on 21 July 2026, with the market resolving to the specific Celsius range containing that highest reading. Historical July data for Wellington typically shows maximum temperatures between 8°C and 14°C, with 12°C representing a common median for mid-summer days in this coastal city [1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome other than the frontrunner suggests traders are heavily confident in a mild, typical winter day rather than an extreme heatwave or cold snap, aligning with the 100% probability assigned to the 12°C range [1].

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July 2026, since the resolution source relies exclusively on the highest recorded temperature for that station on that date [1]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover, wind direction from the Tasman Sea, or unforecasted rain could alter the peak temperature, though current models indicate stable conditions. The market’s binary nature around the 12°C threshold means even a 0.5°C deviation could shift the outcome to the next bracket, making minute-by-minute temperature tracking critical before the 12:00 UTC deadline [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.