Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July is Wellington’s coldest month, with an average low of 47°F (about 8°C) and typical highs rarely exceeding 15°C (59°F)[2]. In recent years, July temperatures at this station have consistently stayed below 18°C, making any extreme heat event statistically negligible. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a high-temperature range aligns with this long-term pattern, as no recorded July day in the past decade has approached the thresholds that would trigger a “YES” outcome in this market[2][5].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily report for NZWN on 9 July 2026, which will be the sole resolution source[3]. Key dependencies include the timing of the temperature reading (recorded for all times on that day) and potential microclimatic anomalies, though Wellington’s coastal geography strongly suppresses extreme heat. No major weather announcements are expected, but any sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could influence the final reading. For real-time updates, the National Weather Service time series for NZWN provides hourly data that may hint at the day’s peak before the official report is published[1]. Given the station’s location and seasonal norms, the likelihood of a high-temperature outlier remains effectively zero.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Wellington on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.