Highest temperature in Wellington on May 25?

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Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at the International Airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Weather Underground. May falls within Wellington's autumn season in the Southern Hemisphere, typically characterised by mild to cool conditions as the region transitions toward winter.

Wellington's May temperatures have historically ranged between 8°C and 16°C for daily highs, though extremes occasionally occur. The city's exposed coastal position and prevailing westerly winds create volatile weather patterns that can shift significantly within single days. Comparable May dates show that temperatures above 18°C are rare but not unprecedented; the airport station recorded a 19.8°C high on 25 May 2013, demonstrating that warmer-than-typical outcomes do materialise occasionally. Most years see highs clustering in the 10–14°C band, which explains the current 0% probability assigned to higher temperature ranges.

Traders should monitor the Southern Oscillation Index and sea surface temperature anomalies in the weeks preceding late May, as these drive Wellington's seasonal weather patterns. The MetService New Zealand forecast issued in early May will provide the most reliable guidance on atmospheric conditions likely to prevail on the settlement date. Any unusual warming trend across the Tasman region in the preceding weeks could signal higher-than-normal temperatures, though such occurrences remain statistically uncommon for this period.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.