Highest temperature in Wellington on May 26?

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Market context

Wellington's highest temperature on 26 May 2026 will be measured at the city's international airport weather station and resolved against historical records from Weather Underground. May falls within Wellington's autumn season in the Southern Hemisphere, typically characterised by mild to cool conditions as the region transitions toward winter.

Wellington's May temperatures historically range between 8–15°C for daily highs, though the city's exposed coastal location and variable wind patterns create considerable day-to-day variation. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the highest temperature will fall below the lowest threshold offered in the market's resolution brackets. Comparable May days at Wellington Airport over the past decade show that temperatures below 10°C occur roughly 30–40% of the time, whilst readings above 16°C are rare but not unprecedented during early May warm spells.

The primary variable affecting settlement will be the arrival of any warm air mass or high-pressure system over the lower North Island in the days preceding 26 May. Traders should monitor MetService New Zealand forecasts and synoptic charts released in the week before the settlement date, as these will indicate whether anomalously warm conditions are likely. The specific timing of the temperature peak matters; if the highest reading occurs outside the settlement window (before 12:00 UTC on 26 May), it would not be captured in the resolution data, making intraday forecast precision essential for accurate pricing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.