Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract for 10 August, and the market is really about whether the overnight minimum slips into a materially cooler band than the city’s usual August floor. The Observatory’s August normals put the mean minimum for 10 August at 26.3°C, which is a useful anchor: in a typical year, readings cluster well above the high-20s rather than anywhere near the teens or low-20s.[2]

That is why the current 0% YES implies an outcome that would be very unusual for mid-August. Recent comparables point the same way: Hong Kong’s August weather profile is persistently hot and humid, with average lows around 27–28°C across multiple climate datasets, while late-summer synoptic conditions often keep overnight minima elevated rather than suppressed.[7][10][18] Even in recent Observatory summaries, 10–13 August has been described as a period of mixed sunshine, showers and thunderstorms, not a pattern that usually delivers sharp night-time cooling.[9]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s day-ahead and same-day updates, especially any thunderstorm, rainband or stronger northeasterly influence that could nudge the pre-dawn minimum down. The latest public forecasts for Hong Kong on 10 August still show a very warm night, with lows in the mid-80s °F range and only limited precipitation risk, which maps to roughly the high-20s°C and leaves little obvious path to an unusually low reading.[12][18] The decisive datapoint will be the final published “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” once the Daily Extract is released.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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