Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 11 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, and the market resolves to the Celsius band containing the **absolute daily minimum** once the data is published. In practical terms, this is a late-summer Hong Kong temperature bet rather than a midday heat story: the question is how far the overnight or early-morning low can fall before the day warms up.

The crowd’s 0% YES pricing implies traders are assigning no meaningful chance to an unusually cool outcome. That is consistent with August climatology: the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 11 August mean minimum temperature at **26.7°C**, with high humidity and substantial cloud cover typical for the date, while recent August history has also stayed very warm, including the Observatory’s note that 11 August 2023 produced a minimum of **25.7°C**. For a lower band to land, Hong Kong would usually need a stronger-than-usual cool surge or heavy rain and cloud suppressing the overnight floor.

What matters now is whether the Observatory issues any updated weather warnings, tropical cyclone-related changes, or prolonged rain bands before the extract is fixed. Recent market-relevant context has been a hot spell in Hong Kong, with the city posting extreme August heat in early August and forecasts for 11 August pointing to continued warmth rather than a sharp cooldown, which supports the view that the lowest temperature is more likely to sit in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius than break materially lower. The final published extract, not any provisional forecast, is the settlement driver.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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