Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s low on 5 August is the relevant data point here, not the daytime heat, and the market will settle on the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min” once the daily extract is published. With the crowd currently at 0% YES, the market is effectively treating the outcome as still unpriced rather than impossible, so the main question is whether the official reading lands in the very low 20s Celsius or slips into the high teens.

For context, Hong Kong’s August climate is usually hot, humid, and rain-prone, with long-run guidance pointing to average lows around 27°C to 28°C and frequent showers under the southwest monsoon.[2][10][12] That matters because overnight minima in the mid-20s are normal, while a significantly cooler reading generally needs cloud cover, rain, or a disturbed air mass to hold temperatures down. The Observatory’s own August-October seasonal outlook also points to normal to above-normal temperatures overall, which is consistent with elevated overnight readings rather than a cold outlier.[18]

Traders should watch the Observatory’s short-range regional forecasts and any tropical weather advisories, since these are the clearest catalysts for a lower minimum.[13][15] On 5 August, the Observatory was already issuing city weather bulletins showing showers across parts of southern China, while third-party forecast services were flagging rain and lows around the mid-20s Celsius for Hong Kong that day.[3][4][2] If rainfall or thick cloud persists through the night, the minimum can be pulled down a little; if conditions clear late, the overnight low usually rises quickly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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