Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 6 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Min** reading in the daily extract, with the market only resolving once that official data is published. The current 0% YES price implies traders are treating an unusually cool outcome as effectively impossible, which is consistent with the city’s late-summer climatology rather than an active signal from the market itself.[1][4]

The seasonal baseline points towards a very warm overnight low, not a marginal one. The Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals put 6 August at a mean minimum of **26.8°C**, while other weather sources place typical August lows around **26–28°C** in Hong Kong, with 2025’s 5 August minimum at the Observatory falling to **24.0°C** during persistent rain, showing that only a pronounced unsettled spell tends to drag the figure materially lower.[1][3][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s rainfall pattern, any lingering influence from showers or an anticyclone aloft, and the timing of the Observatory’s final daily extract rather than any team-style narrative shift. If the morning report shows a humid, rain-soaked start similar to the 2025 case, the low could be pulled down; if conditions stay broadly typical for August, the result should stay close to the climatological band around 26–28°C.[6][7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

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