Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s low on 31 July will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **“Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)”** for that date, and the market cannot settle until that extract is published. July in Hong Kong is normally hot and humid, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals showing a mean minimum of about **27.0°C** near the end of the month, so a sub-25°C outcome would be materially cooler than typical mid-summer conditions.[6][16]

The current **2% YES** implies the market is heavily leaning against an unusually low reading, which is consistent with the seasonal base rate and with recent Hong Kong July conditions that have generally been warm rather than cool.[18][19] For context, the Observatory said July 2023 was exceptionally hot, with a monthly mean minimum of **28.0°C**, and noted that after rain on 31 July the temperature rebounded significantly later that day.[8][15]

For traders, the main catalysts are the overnight weather setup and whether any rain band, trough, or stronger onshore flow moves through Hong Kong before the morning minimum is locked in. The key dependency is the Observatory’s final daily extract rather than intra-day highs, so the market is most sensitive to the pre-dawn period and any official updates on showers or thunderstorms from the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather material and climate pages.[3][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.