Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tokyo's lowest temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against historical May patterns for the city. Late May typically marks the transition into early summer across the Kanto region, with minimum temperatures usually ranging between 15–18°C. The 4% probability assigned to an unusually cold reading reflects the rarity of sub-15°C lows during this period, though such outcomes remain meteorologically plausible given Japan's susceptibility to cold air masses from the north.

Historical data from Tokyo's May records shows that temperatures below 12°C occur roughly once every 10–15 years during this calendar window. The most recent notable cold snap in late May occurred in 2015, when the city recorded a low of 11.2°C on 23 May. Seasonal patterns favour warmer readings as May progresses, but anomalous weather systems—particularly early-season typhoon remnants or polar intrusions—have occasionally driven temperatures into the 10–13°C range. The current crowd probability of 4% aligns with historical frequency estimates for sub-15°C outcomes.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in the weeks preceding 24 May, particularly any alerts regarding upper-level troughs or cold frontal systems tracking toward the Kanto region. Wunderground's historical data feed will be the settlement source, so familiarity with Haneda's microclimate—which can differ slightly from central Tokyo readings—matters for calibration. Seasonal transition patterns and any early-season weather disruptions will be the primary drivers of actual outcomes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.