Bitcoin price on May 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close price at noon ET on 30 May 2026. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that same day, providing a four-hour buffer after the resolution timestamp. Resolution depends entirely on the official Binance candle data; if the price falls between two brackets, the higher range resolves as correct.

Bitcoin's weekly price action has historically shown significant volatility around late May, though directional bias varies by year. In May 2021, BTC declined sharply mid-month before stabilising; in May 2022, the asset fell through support levels during broader market stress. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's YES bracket to sit substantially above current spot prices, making the threshold unlikely to be breached within the settlement window. Historical precedent indicates single-week moves of 10–15% are plausible but require either major macroeconomic shifts or protocol-level developments.

Key catalysts through May 2026 include US economic data releases (inflation prints, jobless claims), Federal Reserve communications, and any significant regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and the US dollar typically strengthens during periods of economic uncertainty. Traders should monitor spot trading volumes on Binance itself, as thin liquidity at specific price levels can amplify intraday volatility. Any major exchange outages or trading halts would affect candle formation, though Binance's infrastructure has historically remained stable during standard market hours.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on May 30? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.