World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 World Cup has already created a small live sample for how this market can move: every missed or saved spot-kick in normal play, stoppage time or extra time counts, while shootout attempts do not. That structure matters because the tournament’s penalty total is usually driven by a handful of high-leverage incidents rather than a steady flow, and a 4% crowd price implies the threshold is viewed as a tail outcome rather than a base case.[5][9]

Historical framing points the same way. World Cup penalty history includes famous single-event misses, but the record set is thin enough that a market on the total number of non-shootout failures is naturally sensitive to match state, tactical conservatism and referee decisions more than to reputation alone.[2][7][9] In other words, a high-scoring, open tournament with repeated box pressure would support the “Yes” side, but the more usual pattern is that penalties remain sporadic and often hinge on one or two decisive moments.[4][9]

For traders, the main catalysts are upcoming knockout fixtures, injury and suspension news around first-choice takers, and any late coaching changes that alter on-field hierarchy. England, France, Brazil and other favourites can move the market if a senior penalty taker is ruled out or rotated, while a run of tightly contested matches or VAR-heavy officiating would increase the chance of additional spot-kicks being awarded. Recent coverage also points to elite takers such as Harry Kane still being central to World Cup penalty discussion, which keeps attention on selection and availability rather than pure conversion skill.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.