Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question is whether the Islamic Republic of Iran loses governing control before the end of 2026. At a 16% Yes price, the market is saying collapse is possible but still a low-probability outcome relative to the system’s recent record of survival. Iran has absorbed war, sanctions, leadership turbulence and repeated protest waves without the core institutions of clerical rule breaking. Even after major pressure, including the killing of Ali Khamenei during the 2026 conflict, reporting has continued to describe a state still operating through the Supreme Leader’s office, the Guardian Council and the IRGC rather than a wholesale replacement of power.

Comparable cases point to why traders should distinguish between instability and regime fall. The 1979 revolution remains the clearest modern example of an Iranian regime collapse, but more recent leadership crises in authoritarian systems have often ended in continuity, military dominance or a managed succession rather than full breakdown. CFR notes that Iran’s transition could still follow continuity, military takeover or collapse, and those paths can overlap. ISW has also previously argued that crackdown capacity, security-force cohesion and the regime’s willingness to pay and mobilise loyalists are key indicators; as long as those remain intact, protest alone is unlikely to force a settlement event.

The main catalysts are any signs that the security apparatus is fragmenting, the Supreme Leader’s office is no longer functioning as the central arbiter, or major institutions are openly bypassed for long enough to amount to de facto loss of control. Watch for sustained elite defections, inability to pay or direct security forces, and credible reporting that the IRGC is acting independently of clerical authority. Recent coverage from the New York Times and others has described active US and Israeli regime-change planning, but external pressure does not itself satisfy this market unless it translates into a genuine break in domestic शासन.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.