Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will record its peak temperature for 16 July 2026, with the market currently pricing any outcome above the lowest bracket at zero probability. Historical data for mid-July in the Netherlands shows average highs near 22°C, though heatwaves have pushed readings past 30°C in recent years, such as the 35.4°C recorded in July 2019. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to fall within the lowest defined range, likely below 25°C, aligning with typical summer conditions rather than extreme heat events [1].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the Dutch meteorological service, KNMI, which issues daily heat advisories when temperatures approach 30°C. A sudden shift in wind patterns from the south or a prolonged period of clear skies could act as a catalyst, potentially pushing the day’s peak into higher brackets. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, meaning any late-morning heat spike will directly determine the outcome. Wunderground’s historical data for Schiphol will be the official resolution source, so discrepancies between forecast models and actual station readings could create short-term volatility [1].

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.