Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's highest temperature on 21 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and resolved against historical weather data. July represents the peak of Beijing's summer season, when daily highs routinely exceed 30°C. The settlement mechanism relies on Wunderground's historical records for this specific monitoring station, which provides consistent daily temperature readings across multiple years.

Beijing's July temperatures have shown considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest temperatures recorded on 21 July ranged from 26°C to 36°C, with an average around 32°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific range options available or anticipating an unusually cool day relative to seasonal norms. Historical data from the same station indicates that temperatures below 25°C on this date occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings above 35°C happen in approximately three out of every ten years.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 21 July 2026, particularly any alerts from China's Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-July can occasionally suppress temperatures across northern China, though such events typically occur with less frequency than sustained high-pressure systems that drive extreme heat. Real-time atmospheric conditions and any official heat warnings issued by Beijing authorities will provide the most reliable indicators of likely temperature ranges as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.