Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Shuangliu International Airport Station and resolved against the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, which serves as the authoritative source over summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will contain the day's peak reading.

August in Chengdu typically brings sustained heat, with historical records showing daily highs regularly exceeding 35°C during this period. The city's inland location in Sichuan Province and its geographical position in a basin contribute to heat retention. Comparable August days from previous years provide the clearest reference point: examining Shuangliu station data from August 2023 and 2024 reveals peak temperatures in the 35–38°C range were common, though occasional days pushed toward 39–40°C. The 0% probability across all ranges suggests traders may be awaiting confirmation of the specific temperature brackets offered before committing positions.

Weather forecasting accuracy for single-day temperature peaks at a specific location typically improves significantly within two weeks of the target date. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from late July onwards, particularly any alerts from China's National Meteorological Centre regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems affecting central China. The resolution mechanism's reliance on the Daily Observations table rather than summary figures means the precise timing of the day's warmest reading becomes material—afternoon peaks are standard, but unusual patterns could affect which bracket captures the maximum.

Methodology

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