Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s reading on 4 August is set by the **highest temperature** recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, so the key question is whether daytime heating can push the station into the mid-30s Celsius before cloud and showers cut the top off. Seasonal guides put Chengdu in a hot, humid monsoon pattern in early August, with typical daytime highs around **30–32°C** and frequent rain or scattered convection, which usually keeps the upper end of the distribution close to the low-to-mid 30s rather than much higher.[2][7][13]

That framing makes the current **0% YES** crowd view look detached from the climate norm, not from a special cold spell. Comparable August forecasts for Chengdu repeatedly cluster around **32°C to 35°C**, with several services showing 4 August near **32°C/24°C** or even **34°C** in the broader area, and one station-based guide listing 4 August historical averages around **32.1°C** for the day’s high.[1][3][9][11] In other words, a resolution at or above 30°C would be consistent with the usual August pattern, while an outcome below that would require an unusually suppressed daytime peak.[2][5][18]

For traders, the important catalysts are the afternoon cloud and rain profile, because Chengdu’s heat can be capped quickly if thunderstorms develop early, but can also spike if sunshine holds through mid-afternoon.[1][3][17] Wunderground’s final settlement will use the station’s highest recorded temperature for the full day, so late-day revisions matter only until the next day’s first datapoint is published; that means any update to the airport station feed, a sharp forecast shift, or a change in convective timing could still move the market before settlement.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.