Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas is set to experience peak summer heat on 12 July 2026, with forecast models indicating daily highs between 96°F and 102°F at the Dallas Love Field station [1]. Historical climatology for July shows a normal maximum of 96.9°F, though extreme spikes have previously breached 108°F on dates like 4 July 1996 and 28 July 1995 [6][7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are confident the temperature will not exceed the specific threshold defined for a "YES" outcome, likely a range above 102°F, given that recent July 2023 data recorded a high of 106°F at the same location [2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from the National Weather Service for the FWD forecast office, which tracks immediate deviations from the 96–102°F forecast band [3]. Key catalysts include the onset of any unexpected heat dome patterns or precipitation events, as the week ahead shows variable highs ranging from 75°F to 89°F with precipitation chances exceeding 20% on at least three days [5]. Since the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day via Wunderground, any sudden cloud cover or rain before midday could significantly suppress the peak reading below extreme historical levels [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.