Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded a peak of 91°F yesterday at Love Field, confirming the city’s tendency for extreme mid-summer heat as July 15 approaches. Historical data shows Dallas Love Field regularly hits 90°F or higher in mid-July, with the 2023 and 2024 highs landing at 94°F and 93°F respectively. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any specific outcome is likely a mispricing artefact, as the market’s frontrunner is actually 90–91°F at 44%, followed by 88–89°F at 30%, suggesting traders are betting on a hot day rather than dismissing the event entirely [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, which typically updates daily and can signal shifts in high-pressure systems that drive temperature spikes. A key dependency is the presence of southerly winds, which currently sit at 11 mph and bring humid air from the Gulf, a factor that BBC Weather notes as contributing to today’s 91°F reading and 50% humidity [2]. Any sudden change in wind direction or a drop in pressure below 1010mb could indicate a cooling front, altering the probability distribution for the 15 July settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.