Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing its peak summer heat, with today’s forecast predicting sunny periods interspersed with a few showers and a medium-low probability of significant rain [9]. The city’s July climate typically sees average highs near 31.7°C (89°F), while recent days have recorded maximums approaching 33.7°C (92.7°F) [2][5]. The Hong Kong Observatory, the official resolution source, will publish the finalized “Absolute Daily Max” in its Daily Extract once the 13 July data is complete [6].

Historical July records in Hong Kong show daily maximums frequently exceeding 33°C, with the month consistently ranking as the hottest of the year [5]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for the current market likely reflects uncertainty about the specific temperature range rather than an expectation of cool conditions, as temperatures below 30°C in mid-July are exceptionally rare [1][5]. Comparable cases from recent years indicate that daily highs often cluster between 32°C and 34°C, making lower ranges statistically improbable.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract for the 13 July 2026 entry, which will contain the definitive “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” [6]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, meaning the market cannot resolve until the official data is published [6]. Any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall intensity today could influence the final maximum, though the prevailing sunny forecast suggests a high likelihood of temperatures aligning with typical July extremes [9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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