Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory is set to record the absolute daily maximum temperature for 3 July 2026, a single data point that will determine the resolution of this prediction market. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome above the lowest range, yet this contradicts seasonal guidance pointing to normal-to-above-normal temperatures for July amid the long-term warming trend[1][3]. Historical comparables frame this probability: July 2026 forecasts show daily highs ranging from 86°F to 96°F (30°C to 35.6°C), with the average high at 89°F (31.7°C)[2]. Recent data confirms this pattern, with the highest temperature recorded in the last 15 days reaching 92.3°F (33.5°C) on 1 July 2026[5]. The market’s frontrunner is 31°C at 48%, followed by 30°C at 36%, suggesting the 0% probability for higher ranges is likely a mispricing given the climatic baseline[1].

Traders must monitor the finalisation of the Hong Kong Observatory’s "Daily Extract" for 3 July, as the market cannot resolve until this official data is published[1]. The key dependency is the release of the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" value, which measures temperature to one decimal place[1]. Watch for any sudden shifts in the ENSO status or regional cloud cover announcements, as these directly influence the chance of above-normal temperatures forecasted for July–September 2026[3]. No key absences or coaching changes apply here, but the timing of the data release is critical; the settlement window ends 2026-07-03T12:00:00Z, meaning the final temperature reading must be confirmed before this deadline[1]. The most immediate catalyst is the observatory’s confirmation of the daily maximum, which will either validate the 31°C frontrunner or shift probability to higher bands if the reading exceeds 32°C.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.