Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong will record its highest temperature on 6 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius by the Hong Kong Observatory, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest range. This 0% YES crowd-implied probability reflects a consensus that extreme heat exceeding typical July peaks is unlikely, despite seasonal forecasts indicating normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026[3].

Historical data shows 31°C is a common July outcome in Hong Kong, sitting near the lower end of typical peak temperatures, while AccuWeather forecasts daily highs between 86°F and 95°F (30°C–35°C) for July 2026[4][9]. The 0% probability likely stems from traders interpreting the market’s resolution ranges as excluding these common outcomes, not from an expectation of unusually cool weather.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s finalised “Daily Extract” for the absolute daily maximum temperature, which will be published after the settlement window ends on 12:00 UTC on 6 July 2026[1]. The market cannot resolve until this data is officially released, and the temperature will be recorded to one decimal place in Celsius, making precise timing of the announcement critical for position adjustments.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.