Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, measured to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are shaped by the onset of the southwest monsoon and pre-typhoon atmospheric conditions. Historical records show daily maxima in mid-June typically range between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes have occasionally exceeded 35°C during particularly intense heat waves or when tropical systems approach. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the settlement range to fall outside whatever upper threshold this market defines, though without visibility on the specific temperature brackets offered, the implied confidence in cooler conditions remains unclear. Comparable June dates from recent years provide the most reliable baseline: the Observatory's climate data portal shows considerable year-to-year variation depending on monsoon intensity and any early-season typhoon activity.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre in the weeks preceding mid-June, as storm systems can suppress daytime temperatures significantly. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks in advance; any alerts regarding unusual heat or atmospheric pressure systems will influence temperature expectations. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's publication schedule for the Daily Extract—delays in data release could postpone resolution beyond the nominal window.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.