Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 21?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading on 21 June will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max” for the day, and that figure is only final once the daily extract is published. The current market pricing leans to a mid-30s outcome, with 32°C and 33°C treated as the likeliest bands rather than an extreme spike or a cool day.[1][6]

That framing fits the local climatology. Hong Kong’s June average maximum is around the low 30s, while the Observatory says June–August temperatures are expected to be above normal in 2026, reflecting a broader warming trend and seasonal guidance that favours normal-to-above-normal heat.[2][3] Last June was also notably warm, with the monthly mean maximum at 31.5°C, which reinforces how a low-30s settlement is the baseline rather than an outlier.[2]

For traders, the key drivers are the near-term synoptic setup and whether cloud cover, rainbands, or a subtropical ridge dominate the afternoon. The Observatory updates climate information on working days before 2 p.m., but the market cannot settle until the day’s final data is posted, so a late revision or delayed publication is the main operational dependency.[6] The biggest swing risk is an unexpected change in the afternoon weather pattern; absent that, the distribution should stay anchored to the low-to-mid 30s forecast range.[3][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.