Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston will experience its peak July heat on 10 July 2026 at William P. Hobby Airport, with the market betting on whether the high reaches a specific Fahrenheit threshold. Historical data shows July in Houston typically sees highs between 77°F and 96°F, with an average of 93°F, while extreme records reach 101°F[3][5]. The current 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the temperature to fall well below the market’s threshold, consistent with recent trends where even warm July days rarely breach 96°F unless under exceptional heatwave conditions[5].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Houston-Galveston forecast updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data for KHOU, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or humidity could alter the peak temperature[2][8]. A key catalyst is the release of the official 10 July high temperature on Wunderground after 12:00 UTC, which will determine settlement[8]. While no major weather anomalies are currently forecast for mid-July 2026, any unexpected surge in the Gulf of Mexico’s moisture content could push temperatures toward the upper 90s, challenging the crowd’s low-probability stance[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Houston on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.