Highest temperature in London on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

London City Airport is already running warm, with the station reporting about 22°C in overcast conditions and an east wind around 14 mph, while Met Office guidance for the airport has a maximum of 30°C and BBC Weather points to 28°C for Monday before a sharper rise later in the week.[9][6][4] For a settlement that uses the *highest* reading at the airport station, the early-afternoon profile matters as much as the daily headline, because a brief sunny break or a late spike can lift the final figure above the forecast maximum.

A 0% YES price implies the market is treating the event as effectively impossible, but June temperatures at London City Airport are normally well above that: WeatherSpark describes the warm season as beginning in mid-June and the BBC’s local forecast shows highs in the high 20s to mid-30s over the surrounding days.[1][4] Recent Polymarket pricing for nearby dates also suggests traders are leaning on a hot spell rather than a cool one, with June 23 forecast chatter pointing to 34–38°C and the market concentrated in the mid-30s outcomes.[2] Against that backdrop, a zero bid looks more like a severe mispricing than a view that London cannot print a summer high.

Traders should watch the next airport observations, any Met Office or BBC forecast updates, and whether convection or cloud cover builds into the afternoon, because the final reading will depend on the station’s actual peak before the noon UTC settlement cut-off.[6][9][4] Wunderground’s daily history page for EGLC is the resolution source, so the key dependency is not the wider London average but the single highest airport temperature logged during the window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.