Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution based on the precise hourly readings rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning afternoon temperature peaks recorded after the cutoff will not factor into the resolution.

August temperatures in Munich historically range between 24–28°C on average, though heat waves can push daily highs into the low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature bands to begin above plausible outcomes for a typical summer day, or that the specific resolution methodology—reliant on Weather Underground's granular data rather than rounded daily summaries—creates uncertainty about which source will ultimately govern the settlement. Historical August records for the city show variability year to year; 2015 and 2022 saw notably elevated temperatures across central Europe, whilst cooler patterns in 2021 kept peaks moderate.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates from late July through early August 2026, particularly from Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF models, which typically show skill in predicting high-pressure systems and heat advection into Bavaria. Any significant Atlantic blocking pattern or Saharan dust transport event in the week preceding 11 August would shift probability towards higher temperature ranges. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than official DWD or airport METAR data—introduces a dependency on that platform's data quality and update frequency that traders should verify in advance.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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