Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the event occurring. This stark 0% YES implies the market believes the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely because the threshold is set far above typical July highs. Historically, LaGuardia’s July temperatures average around 85°F, with daily highs typically ranging between 81°F and 99°F[1]. The all-time record stands at 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, making any temperature near that extreme exceptionally rare[3][7]. For a trader, the current probability suggests the market expects conditions to remain well below record-breaking levels.

Traders should monitor real-time weather forecasts from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for any sudden shifts in temperature trends as the settlement window approaches[2][5]. Key catalysts include announcements of heatwaves, changes in wind patterns, or unexpected precipitation that could suppress daytime highs. Recent reports indicate that dangerous, record-breaking heat is possible across New York and New Jersey, though such events remain unpredictable and infrequent[7]. With the settlement deadline set for 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, any deviation from the expected 81–99°F range could significantly alter the market’s implied probability. Traders must watch for updates on heat indices, which have reached as high as 99°F in recent days[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.