Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event is the record-breaking heatwave that struck New York City on 21 June 2026, with Central Park hitting 102°F and LaGuardia Airport recording 83°F, shattering seasonal norms and triggering excessive heat warnings across the Northeast. This extreme weather pattern, driven by intense sunshine, high humidity, and light winds, suggests that the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome is likely a mispricing, as historical June data shows averages near 83°F and recent forecasts for late June 2026 predict highs between 75°F and 88°F[8]. The market’s tight clustering around 72–73°F on Polymarket (97% probability) contradicts the actual meteorological conditions observed on 21 June, where temperatures surged well above seasonal averages and heat index values felt even hotter due to humidity[3][1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s ongoing excessive heat warnings, which cover almost every county and are expected to persist until the weekend, as well as the official Wunderground data release for LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, which will determine the market’s resolution[3][6]. Key dependencies include the timing of the settlement window ending at 12:00:00Z on 22 June 2026 and the potential for urban heat effects to further elevate temperatures in the city compared to coastal areas[3]. Recent news from AccuWeather and numerical models indicates that highs near 79–84°F are probable for New York City on 21 June, aligning with the market’s tight clustering and suggesting that similar conditions may persist into 22 June[2]. The heatwave has already smashed temperature records across the Northeast, with Boston and Newark also breaking their all-time June highs, indicating a sustained period of dangerous heat that traders must factor into their positions[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.