Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris will experience its peak daily heat on 15 July 2026 at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, with the market betting on whether that maximum reaches a specific Celsius threshold. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall well below the defined range, likely reflecting expectations of a cooler mid-July than recent extremes.

Historically, mid-July in Paris has seen highs ranging from 25°C to 35°C, with the 2022 heatwave pushing records to 42.6°C at Le Bourget, while typical years hover near 28°C. Given the 0% probability, the market appears to anticipate conditions closer to the lower end of this spectrum, possibly influenced by seasonal forecasts predicting increased cloud cover or Atlantic airflow that suppresses peak temperatures compared to the stagnant, high-pressure systems of recent scorching summers.

Traders should monitor the daily 00:00 UTC weather model updates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for the Paris region, as shifts in the 10-day forecast could alter temperature projections before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July. Additionally, watch for any official announcements from Météo-France regarding heatwave alerts or revised station calibrations, which could impact the Wunderground data used for resolution, though no such disruptions have been reported as of late Wednesday evening.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.