Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s high for 4 August is the settled event here, and the market is effectively pricing the chance that the day’s peak lands in a narrow late-summer band rather than anywhere near a record. The crowd-implied 0% YES suggests traders see the listed range as either fully mispriced or already exhausted by the day’s realised temperature path, which matters because this contract resolves to the highest reading published for the calendar day at Sea-Tac, not a citywide average.

August in Seattle usually supports moderate warmth rather than extremes, with AccuWeather’s August norms around 75°F for the daily high and 58°F for the low, while seasonal forecast products in the market data point to a warmer-than-average setup and low-to-mid 80s as the likely ceiling. That leaves the main historical frame as a place where mid-80s outcomes are plausible in warmer stretches, but the distribution still clusters well below true heatwave territory, so the pricing should be read against both climatology and the specific airport station’s microclimate rather than broader Seattle anecdotes.[1][2][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are the National Weather Service’s short-range guidance, any shift in the offshore ridge pattern, and whether the Sea-Tac observation sequence captures a late-afternoon peak before evening cooling sets in.[2] The market rules also matter: revisions to the day’s temperature record are counted only until the first datapoint for the following date is published, so any late data correction can still change resolution if it lands before that cut-off.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.