Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically sits at the peak of summer heat, with daily highs frequently exceeding 30°C during the monsoon season. August 14, 2026 falls within the period when the Korean peninsula experiences its most intense thermal conditions, influenced by the North Pacific high-pressure system and residual moisture from the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical records from Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, show August averages around 29–31°C, though individual days regularly breach 32–34°C depending on atmospheric circulation patterns and any tropical systems affecting the region.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient trading activity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable August dates at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variability; the station recorded 34.2°C on August 15, 2023, and 32.8°C on August 14, 2022, demonstrating that mid-range outcomes (32–34°C) are statistically common. Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts issued by the Korea Meteorological Administration in early August, as any system tracking toward the peninsula could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure dominance would favour above-average readings.

The resolution methodology specifies Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, which occasionally diverge due to measurement timing and station calibration. Traders should verify current forecast models from the KMA and international centres (ECMWF, GFS) in the week preceding August 14, as these provide the most reliable guidance on whether conditions will favour cooler, average, or exceptionally warm outcomes for that specific date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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