Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is whether temperatures at Incheon International Airport near Seoul reach a summer peak high enough to clear the market’s band on 8 August. August is normally Seoul’s hottest month, with average highs around 29.5-30.5°C and humid conditions, so a mid-30s reading is not unusual; one August 8 reference point shows a 36.0°C record high, while current forecasts are already clustering in the mid-30s Celsius rather than the low 30s.[1][2][11]

A 0% YES price makes sense only if traders are assuming the upper bands are out of reach, but comparable summer histories suggest the market can still move quickly on a single hot afternoon. Recent historical and forecast pages point to a high around 34.6°C for Seoul on 8 August, and recent daily data show temperatures near 30°C already, which keeps the upside scenario alive if sunshine and weak mixing continue through the afternoon.[1][3][12] The main reference point remains the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, not the summary high/low, so traders should watch the station-specific readings rather than broader city forecasts.[4][15]

Catalysts are straightforward: the day’s hourly observations, any late-morning update to the airport forecast, and whether cloud cover or showers suppress the afternoon maximum. Weather Underground’s station history for the Seoul area and nearby airport stations is the resolution source, so the most relevant dependency is the observed temperature trajectory at Incheon Intl Airport rather than general Seoul weather pages.[4][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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