Highest temperature in Seoul on June 20?

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Market context

Seoul’s late-June heat is usually warm rather than extreme, with typical daytime highs in the high 20s Celsius and a gradual rise through the month as humidity builds. June also marks the start of the monsoon period in South Korea, so the city can swing from bright, hot conditions to wetter, cloudier spells that cap the day’s maximum temperature[1][2][3].

That makes the current 1% implied chance of a very high outcome easier to read as a tail wager than a baseline forecast. In comparable June conditions, Seoul often settles in the 19–28°C range, and the month’s average warmth is high enough to keep the event live, but not so hot that the top end is routine[1][2][9]. The key point for this market is that the settlement source is Incheon Intl Airport Station, which is on the coast and can run a touch differently from central Seoul when sea breezes, cloud cover, or showers move in.

Traders should watch the short-range forecast from the Korea Meteorological Administration, plus any late updates on cloud cover, rain bands, and humidity, because those are the main variables that shift a daily maximum at the airport[6]. The highest reading is taken over the full day, so a clear morning followed by an afternoon spike matters more than the conditions at the open of trading, and any sudden monsoon surge can quickly push the likely range lower[3][4][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.