Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is in the middle of its peak-summer heat season, and the market settles on the highest reading at Pudong airport rather than a city-wide average. Seasonal normals in August are already hot: AccuWeather puts Shanghai’s August average high near 87°F, while WeatherSpark says daily highs commonly sit around 90°F and only rarely exceed 96°F, which is the right frame for a late-summer temperature call rather than an extreme-heat one.[1][12]

For context, the current 0% YES price is hard to reconcile with the broad forecast picture. Several independent forecasts for 3 August point to highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, including 35°C on Yandex, 35°C with patchy light rain on EaseWeather, and about 32°C to 35°C on TravelChinaGuide and other monthly outlooks.[2][4][5][14] A reading at or above the upper range is plausible in Shanghai’s humid coastal climate, but the airport station can run a touch cooler or warmer than central-city estimates, so the exact settlement bucket will depend on the observed peak, not the headline high shown elsewhere.

Traders should watch the morning and early-afternoon evolution of cloud cover, rainfall and thunderstorm risk, because the difference between a 32°C and 35°C maximum often comes down to whether showers arrive early or hold off until later. The latest forecast pages already show rain and storm chances around 3 August, with temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius on some models and rain probabilities elevated on Temperatures.com and EaseWeather.[3][4] Any updated airport observation from Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, plus changes in the official daily forecast through the daytime heating window, will matter most for how this market resolves.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.