Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily high temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 10 July 2026, with historical July averages clustering near 32°C and short-term model runs acting as the decisive variable for traders. Past data shows July highs typically range from 30°C to 38°C, occasionally spiking to 40°C in extreme years, yet the current market assigns a 0% probability to any outcome above the baseline, suggesting a strong consensus that temperatures will remain within the standard warm band rather than breach extreme thresholds[4][5]. This probability framing implies that while heat is expected, the market does not anticipate a record-breaking surge, aligning with the gradual increase in solar energy and growing degree days observed throughout the month[2].

Traders should monitor immediate weather model updates and any sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind speed, as these factors directly influence peak temperatures on the settlement day. Recent forecasts indicate a maximum of 32°C for 10 July, with wind speeds increasing from 11.3 to 12.4 mph and humidity levels remaining high, which could suppress extreme highs despite rising solar radiation[3][2]. No major announcements or schedule changes are expected to alter the meteorological conditions, but the dependency on real-time Wunderground data means that any discrepancy in the station’s reporting could impact the final resolution, making short-term model volatility the primary catalyst to watch[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.