Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai is currently experiencing overcast conditions with temperatures around 33°C at Pudong International Airport, yet the market assigns zero probability to any specific range for tomorrow’s peak. This 0% YES figure reflects a structural mismatch: the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, meaning the market resolves on the very day it is being queried, leaving no time for new data to shift odds before settlement.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai routinely sees highs between 34°C and 38°C at Pudong, with 2024 and 2025 both recording peaks above 36°C on 16 July according to Wunderground archives. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% is therefore inconsistent with the region’s climatic baseline, suggesting either a technical error in the market’s range definitions or a lack of liquidity rather than a genuine belief that temperatures will fall outside all offered brackets.

Traders should monitor the hourly Wunderground feed for Pudong Airport as the day progresses, since the official resolution depends solely on the highest recorded temperature before 12:00 UTC. No external announcements or coaching changes apply here; the only catalyst is the real-time temperature trace itself, which will be updated continuously on the Wunderground history page. Given today’s current 33°C reading and typical afternoon heating, a peak exceeding 35°C is climatologically probable, making the 0% figure appear anomalous.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.