Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei is experiencing rain showers and light rain on 13 July 2026, with forecast highs reaching only 33°C by afternoon, which directly explains the crowd-implied 0% probability for any outcome implying extreme heat. Historical data confirms July is typically the hottest month at Taipei Songshan Airport, with average highs around 33°C (92°F), yet today’s wet conditions suppress temperatures significantly below the ranges traders might expect for a dry summer day[2][10].

Comparable cases from July 2025 show similar variability, where recorded highs fluctuated between 30°C and 35°C depending on cloud cover and precipitation, meaning the current 0% probability likely reflects an overreaction to today’s immediate rain rather than a fundamental dismissal of high-temperature outcomes for the full settlement window[3]. The market’s frontrunner remains 34°C at 37%, followed closely by 35°C at 34%, suggesting the crowd still anticipates a rebound in temperature later in the day or that the 0% figure is a temporary anomaly before the day’s peak[1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and the Central Weather Administration’s apparent temperature charts, as any shift from rain showers to clear skies could rapidly alter the day’s maximum reading[7][8]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 13 July, so the final resolution depends entirely on whether the afternoon light rain showers clear to allow temperatures to climb toward the 34–35°C range observed in recent years[1][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.