Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that peak reading in degrees Celsius. Current crowd pricing reflects near-zero probability, suggesting traders expect relatively cool conditions or uncertainty about the measurement methodology.

Tokyo's August climate typically produces daily highs between 32–35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 37°C—occur roughly once every two to three years in the capital during summer. The 0% implied probability indicates either that the market is pricing for an unusually mild August or that traders are discounting the likelihood of exceptionally high readings. August 2023 saw Tokyo reach 35.1°C as a daily maximum; August 2022 peaked at 36.1°C. These precedents establish the typical range against which the 2026 forecast should be calibrated.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat waves or high-pressure systems over the Kanto region. The resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, so familiarity with that platform's data collection methods at Haneda is essential. Seasonal patterns suggest late August typically remains hot, though early August can vary; the specific date falls early enough in the month that conditions remain somewhat uncertain until closer to the settlement window.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.