Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's highest temperature on 14 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient trader participation or expectation that settlement data will be unavailable at the time window closes.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically peak between 32–35°C, with historical August averages around 29–30°C. The station's location near Tokyo Bay moderates extremes compared to inland areas. Past August heat waves have occasionally pushed readings above 37°C, though such events remain outliers. The 0% probability across all ranges is unusual for a weather market with a defined settlement source and suggests the crowd has not yet engaged substantively with this specific date and location.

Traders should monitor Weather Underground's data availability for Haneda in late July and early August 2026, as resolution depends entirely on that source's Daily Observations table being populated. Japanese meteorological forecasts typically become reliable 10–14 days ahead; seasonal patterns favour temperatures in the 32–35°C band for mid-August, though typhoon activity or unusual pressure systems could alter outcomes. Any disruption to Haneda's weather station operations or Weather Underground's data feed would create settlement risk.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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