Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s temperature market is anchored to the highest reading at Beijing Capital International Airport, and the August 10 outcome will be determined by the day’s actual observing data rather than the headline high/low summary. On a seasonal basis, early August in Beijing is still firmly in the hot part of the year: August averages are around 30°C to 31°C for daytime highs, with historical records showing that the city can occasionally push into the upper 30s Celsius, even if the more typical result is several degrees lower.[3][4][10]

That makes the current 0% YES pricing notable, because a “yes” outcome would require the final station high to land in the market’s specified upper band rather than the more ordinary low- to mid-30s Celsius range implied by August climatology.[3][7][16] Comparable Beijing August data from historical weather sources show frequent daytime maxima near 33°C to 34°C, with occasional hotter spikes, so the market is really about whether today’s observing window produces one of those stronger heat-day readings.[16][17][18]

For traders, the key catalyst is the live sequence of observations from the airport station through the settlement window, not any generic city forecast page. Cloud cover, rainfall, and afternoon convective activity can sharply cap the day’s maximum even after a warm start, while a dry, sunny afternoon can lift readings closer to the upper historical range.[1][16][19][20] The practical dependency is whether the station’s recorded maximum before 12:00 UTC clears the relevant threshold in the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground, since that is the source that governs settlement.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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