Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with settlement based on Wunderground’s daily maximum in degrees Celsius. Historical July climatology for the city shows average highs near 31–32°C, while extreme heat events in recent years have pushed daily maxima into the low 40s°C[1][2]. The all-time record for Beijing is 41.9°C, logged on 24 July 1999, and a station in Tanghekou recorded 41.8°C during a June 2023 heatwave[3][8]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for any outcome below 28°C is 0%, the market is effectively pricing in a typical to hot July day, with the frontrunner outcome at 34°C (44%) and 35°C at 39%[1].

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground’s hourly updates as the settlement window approaches, particularly any announcements of incoming heatwaves or monsoon-related cloud cover that could suppress temperatures[2][3]. Dependencies include the timing of the next rainfall event and humidity levels, which can amplify or dampen peak temperatures; a sudden shift in wind direction from the north could also lower the maximum. Recent news highlights that northern China has experienced recurring heatwaves since 2023, with national averages breaking historical records, suggesting elevated risk of a high-temperature day in mid-July[7]. Watch for any official warnings issued before 13 July, as these often precede record-breaking days.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.