Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport weather on 24 July is being judged against a city that is normally warm and humid in late July, with average temperatures easing from about 33.4°C at the start of the month to 31.7°C by the end, while July also brings heavy rainfall and frequent wet days.[1] That seasonal backdrop matters because the market resolves on the *single highest reading* at Beijing Capital International Airport Station, so a broadly hot day can still fail to clear the relevant temperature band if cloud cover or rain suppresses the peak.[1]

The current **0% YES** crowd view implies traders see the required top-end range as very unlikely under the present setup, but that can move quickly if the airport posts an afternoon spike after a mild morning. Beijing’s latest observed conditions were cloudy and muggy, with 77°F and a RealFeel of 84°F, which is consistent with a warm air mass but not, by itself, enough to indicate an extreme high at the airport.[2] For comparison, July in Beijing typically supports highs around 33°C, so any settlement above that depends on a stronger-than-normal heating burst rather than ordinary seasonal warmth.[1]

Traders should watch the day’s evolution at the airport rather than the city headline, because the resolving source is the Wunderground history page for Beijing Capital International Airport Station, which captures the highest temperature recorded during the full day. The main catalysts are any late-morning or early-afternoon clearing, the timing of showers, and whether temperatures plateau below the relevant band before the daily maximum locks in.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.