Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station will determine this market's resolution. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with Weather Underground's Daily Observations table serving as the authoritative source rather than the Day High & Low summary section should any discrepancy arise.

Chengdu's August temperatures typically range between 24–34°C, with historical data showing the city experiences its peak heat in mid-to-late summer. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands available in the market structure. August 2026 falls within the typical monsoon season for the region, which can introduce variability in daily highs depending on cloud cover and precipitation patterns. Comparable August days at Shuangliu Airport have recorded highs spanning the full range of summer conditions, from cooler days around 26–28°C following rain events to sustained heat above 32°C during clear, high-pressure periods.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts released in the week preceding 14 August, particularly those from China's Meteorological Administration, which provides the most granular regional predictions. Any significant atmospheric systems—tropical cyclones tracking toward southwestern China or unusual high-pressure ridges—would materially shift temperature expectations. The specific resolution methodology requiring Daily Observations data rather than summary figures means traders should familiarise themselves with how Weather Underground records Chengdu station data, as timing of peak temperature recording can vary by source.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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