Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?

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Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport will determine this market's resolution. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle up to that point. Resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings depending on measurement timing and station calibration.

Chengdu's August climate is characterised by high humidity and sustained heat. Historical data from the airport station shows August daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with occasional excursions above 35°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August day or uncertainty about the specific temperature thresholds offered. August 2025 saw Chengdu experience several days exceeding 33°C mid-month, establishing recent precedent for elevated temperatures during this period.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in the week preceding 20 August, which typically provide reliable 7–10 day outlooks for regional temperature patterns. Broader atmospheric conditions—including the East Asian summer monsoon's intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific—will influence whether high-pressure systems dominate or moisture-laden systems bring cooler, cloudier conditions. Real-time station data availability on Weather Underground should be verified before settlement, as occasional gaps or calibration issues have historically affected resolution on weather markets.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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