Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu is experiencing peak summer heat today, with clear skies and temperatures climbing toward 99°F (37°C) at the Shuangliu International Airport station. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a specific temperature range likely reflects uncertainty about whether the day will breach the upper limits of the typical July band, despite current forecasts pointing to highs near 34°C with no precipitation expected [3][5].

Historically, July is the hottest month at this location, with average highs of 85°F (29°C) but frequent peaks reaching 39°C (102°F) during intense heatwaves [2][4]. China recorded its hottest July on record last year, with the highest average temperature since 1961, suggesting a backdrop of elevated thermal stress that could push today’s maximum toward the 37–39°C ceiling rather than the lower end of the range [6].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as afternoon showers or thunderstorms could abruptly cap the temperature [2]. While current models predict a cloudless sky and a UV index of 9, any sudden shift to convective activity before the 12:00 UTC settlement window would invalidate higher temperature outcomes [3][8]. The absence of rain in the immediate forecast supports a high-temperature resolution, but the 0% market stance implies the crowd expects a specific range to be missed entirely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.