Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s July climate typically sees afternoon highs reach 33 °C, with sustained extreme heat uncommon despite the city’s location in eastern China. Historical extremes have peaked at 39.4 °C, but the 24-hour daily mean in July sits around 25 °C, suggesting that temperatures above 35 °C are infrequent rather than routine [1]. The current 82% YES probability implies the market expects the day’s peak to fall within a specific upper range, likely between 33 °C and 36 °C, aligning with the city’s typical summer ceiling rather than its record-breaking outliers.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station (ZUUU) as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, humidity, or wind patterns could push the peak temperature below the implied threshold, while an unseasonal heat surge might breach it. Since the resolution source is fixed to a single station’s daily maximum, localized microclimate effects near the airport—rather than broader citywide readings—will determine the outcome, making precise, station-specific data critical for assessing the 82% probability’s validity.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.