Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is set to experience its peak summer heat tomorrow, with meteorologists monitoring the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station for the day’s highest temperature reading. The city routinely ranks among the hottest in China during July, often seeing temperatures exceed 35°C as part of its characteristic “furnace city” climate pattern.

Historical data from Wunderground shows that July 17 in Chongqing has frequently recorded highs between 36°C and 40°C over the past decade, with 2022 and 2023 both exceeding 39°C at the same station [1]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome appears misaligned with this consistent thermal behaviour, suggesting the market may be underpricing the likelihood of extreme heat. Traders should note that no temperature range below 35°C has ever been recorded on this date in the last ten years at this location.

Key catalysts include overnight cloud cover and wind patterns, which Wunderground tracks hourly and which directly influence peak temperature formation [2]. A sudden shift in the subtropical high-pressure system could push temperatures toward 41°C, while unexpected rain would cap the rise. Meteorological bulletins from the China Meteorological Administration, expected before dawn, will clarify these dependencies and may trigger rapid probability adjustments in the market.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.