Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field’s official high temperature on 22 July is the settling event, with the market using Wunderground’s daily history page for KDAL as the reference. The current crowd-implied split is unusually open at the top end, with **0%** assigned to the YES framing used here while the live market elsewhere shows 104–105°F as the leading band and 106–107°F close behind, which implies traders are clustering around a very hot outcome rather than a single exact reading.[1]

That kind of distribution is consistent with midsummer Dallas heat, where small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or the timing of afternoon peak heating can move the day’s maximum into an adjacent Fahrenheit band. A July temperature market in Dallas typically turns on whether the daily high breaks cleanly above a threshold or stalls just short of it, so a narrow change in observed conditions can matter more than the headline weather pattern.[2]

For traders, the key catalysts are the forecast updates and any late changes in the setup for the afternoon peak: stronger than expected cloud cover, rain-cooled outflow, or a delayed heat maximum would all weigh on the upper bands, while sustained sun and light winds would favour the hotter ranges. The settlement source is the Dallas Love Field station itself, so the relevant dependency is the station observation rather than broader Dallas-area conditions.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 22?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.