Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 15 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport Station throughout that day. The market currently implies near-zero probability of the outcome resolving to YES, suggesting traders expect temperatures to fall below a specific threshold that would trigger affirmative resolution.

August represents the height of Guangzhou's summer monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 32–35°C. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August temperatures at Baiyun Airport rarely exceed 36°C, though heat waves can push readings into the 37–39°C range during particularly intense pressure systems. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market has priced in either a conservative threshold or confidence in typical seasonal patterns holding. Comparable August days from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant benchmark; extreme outliers above 40°C remain statistically rare at this location, occurring perhaps once every five to ten years.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone activity across the South China Sea in early August 2026, as storm systems can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or intensify heat through atmospheric pressure changes. The China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts, typically released in July, will signal whether anomalous heat is anticipated. Real-time atmospheric pressure readings and upper-air patterns in the week preceding 15 August will offer the sharpest predictive signal for whether conditions favour exceptional heat that day.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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